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全球有限公司 - 2019年5月20日

中国贸易冲突酝酿了20年

Paul Wiseman, Martin Crutsinger, Christopher Rugaber | 工业设备新闻(IEN)

Tensions between the world's two biggest economies intensified over the last week. The Trump administration more than doubled tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese 进口 and spelled out plans to target the $300 billion worth that aren't already facing 25% taxes. The Chinese have punched back by upping tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. 进口.

中国贸易冲突酝酿了20年

中国贸易冲突酝酿了20年

华盛顿(美联社)——美国总统巴拉克.S.中美贸易爆发是一场漫长的战争.

And it won't be easily resolved, not even if U.S. and Chinese negotiators reach a truce in the next few weeks that reassures jittery financial markets.

Tensions between the world's two biggest economies intensified over the last week. The Trump administration more than doubled tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese 进口 and spelled out plans to target the $300 billion worth that aren't already facing 25% taxes. The escalation covers everything from sneakers to toasters to billiard balls.

The Chinese have punched back by upping tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. 进口.

Eleven rounds of negotiations have failed to settle a dispute over Beijing's aggressive push to challenge U.S. 技术优势-一场运动,美国.S. alleges, that includes stealing technology and forcing foreign companies to hand over 贸易 secrets.

"美国nited States has legitimate grounds to be upset with the Chinese,马克·赞迪说, 穆迪分析公司首席经济学家. “这种情况已经持续了近20年."

事情不应该是这样的. When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, optimists expected China to open its economy. And maybe the Chinese Communist Party would allow more political freedom as the country increased contact with the world's industrialized democracies.

但结果令人失望.

China has used its WTO membership to flood other countries with exports, while limiting foreign access to its own market. “他们的愿景在很多方面都是零和博弈,布莱恩·约翰逊说, a policy analyst who specializes in Asia at the liberal Center for American Progress.

The result is a badly lopsided trading relationship: 美国.S. 贸易 deficit with China last year hit a record $379 billion.

"China has effectively used the multilateral trading system to its own advantage, enjoying the benefits of those rules of engagement while not always following those rules in spirit,埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德说, a Cornell University economist and former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund.

批评人士现在说,总部设在日内瓦的世贸组织, 谁制定贸易规则和调解争端, was ill-equipped to handle China's unorthodox blend of capitalism and state control. 在中国的体制下, it is tough to tell whether a company is seeking profits in the conventional way or is acting with the support and on behalf of the government to achieve China's strategic goals. 美国.S., 例如, says that the telecommunications equipment supplied by China's Huawei can be used to spy on foreign countries.

"China's economy is fundamentally different— even unique," Mark Wu of Harvard Law School wrote in an influential 2016 paper. 世贸组织的规则, 作为写, are not fully equipped to handle the range of economic problems associated with China's rise."

Frictions have increased since Xi Jinping became the Chinese leader in 2012. 2015年,北京公布了一项雄心勃勃的计划, 中国制造2025, to turn Chinese companies into world leaders in advanced fields like robotics and artificial intelligence.

但是美国.S. says China is trying to meet its aspirations by stealing 贸易 secrets, 强制技术转让, subsidizing its own firms and burying in red tape foreign companies that want to compete in the Chinese market. 去年,美国政府宣布.S. began imposing tariffs to pressure China to drop the aggressive tactics.

Talks to resolve the dispute have foundered in part on America's insistence that any deal contain provisions that will force China to keep its commitments.

"China is unlikely to give in to the American demands," economist Sung Won Sohn of Loyola Marymount University wrote this week. “中国, it is more than a 贸易 issue: they see America bullying a new emerging economic and military rival. It reminds China of the humiliation the country suffered in the 19th century when the western powers imposed unfair treaties on China."

仍然, many analysts expect the two countries to find a way back from the brink — at least in the near term. 双方都有结束争端的动机. 中国经济正在减速, and the 贸易 war with the United States is worrying China's consumers and businesses. 在美国, the dispute jeopardizes a stock market rally that President Donald Trump touts as a vote of confidence in his economic stewardship.

The two countries are expected to resume talks that broke off Friday but haven't scheduled anything yet. Trump has said that he expects to meet Xi in late June at the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan.

Cheng Li, director of the China Center at the Brookings Institution, admits there's no way the U.S. and China can resolve all the issues that divide them. But he says continued economic cooperation between the two countries is vital: It gives them common interests and helps prevent their rivalry from escalating into political and perhaps even military conflict.

“尽管关系紧张, no American soldier has died in (East Asia) since the Vietnam War,李说. “这是一个伟大的成就."

美国也可以.S. and China end the current dispute and continue their uneasy economic relationship? “我们可以,我们必须,”李说. “赌注太大了."

 

#中国 #制造业 #贸易